NGX Daily Market Summary - Thursday, October 30, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) closed -0.38% lower at 154,260.98, breaking a three-day run despite the YTD returns holding robust at +48.94%. Market turnover saw a dramatic surge, jumping by +134.03% to ₦27.96B, powered by massive trades in large-caps and ETFs. While volume rose by 11% to 488 million shares, market breadth remained bearish (advancers/decliners ratio of 0.59x), with only 24 gainers to 41 losers — an indication of persistent sector-specific headwinds and cautious sentiment despite institutional dominance in value traded (93% of value).

• Market Breadth & Turnover Trends:
  • Market breadth weak at 0.59x (24 advancers, 41 decliners).
  • Turnover up +134.03% — likely driven by block institutional trades (e.g., GTCO, ZenithBank, GEREGU).
  • Volume traded increased to 488M shares; institutional activity dominated by value, not trade count.
• Top Gainers:
  • MERGROWTH (+10.00%) — bullish ETF rebound, notable 15DMA crossover.
  • MERVALUE (+10.00%) — ETF with high RSI (64.7) showing further momentum.
  • OANDO (+9.99%) — massive unusual volume (224% above avg), technical buy signal confirmed.
  • ASOSAVINGS (+9.3%) — YTD leader (+88%), RSI 92.4 (overbought); momentum at extremes.
  • AIICO (+5.26%) — insurance resurgence, strong move above 15DMA.
• Top Losers:
  • CADBURY (-10.00%) — bearish 15DMA breakdown, RSI steady; caution on food sector names.
  • INTBREW (-10.00%) — new YTD low; continued sentiment deterioration.
  • CHAMS (-10.00%) — also a top YTD loser (-67.1%), signaling structural weakness.
  • LEARNAFRCA (-9.92%) — momentum reversal, bearish momentum confirmed by 15DMA cross.
  • NAHCO (-9.49%) — elevated volume, bearish technicals (high RSI, breakdown below 15DMA).

Key Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Spike: The surge in turnover, despite negative ASI, hints at aggressive institutional rebalancing in large-caps and ETFs—typically a sign of sector rotation or big money repositioning pre-month-end.
• Advancers/Decliners: Losers far outnumbered gainers, underscoring persistent risk-off sentiment outside selected momentum names (see ETFs and financials).
• Unusual Volume:
  • ASOSAVINGS (vol >11,000% above avg!), OANDO, GEREGU, GTCO saw dramatic trades. OANDO and ASOSAVINGS align as both price and momentum leaders.
  • GTCO heavy block trades, but price closed -1.49% lower—possible short-term supply absorption ahead of rebound?
• YTD Gain/Loss Trends:
  • Top YTD Gainers: ASOSAVINGS (+88%) is both a day and YTD leader; volume/RSI suggest overbought crowding, caution for new entry.
    OANDO also appears in both top 5D and unusual volume, showing a new technical impulse.
  • Top YTD Losers: CHAMS (-67.1%) and INTBREW (-129.09%) also top today's losers. Most bear names are not technical rebounders, pointing to continued risk.
• Bullish Momentum Signals:
  • Strongest overlaps: MERGROWTH, OANDO, AIICO — each up on day, marked by high/unusual volume, 15DMA crosses, and strong sectoral rotation.
  • ASOSAVINGS has RSI 92.4—extreme overbought. Watch for snapbacks/corrections by short-term traders.
• Bearish Momentum Signals:
  • CADBURY, LEARNAFRCA, NAHCO — all confirmed by 15DMA breakdown. NAHCO trades with high volume and RSI ~70: classic exhaustion risk.
• Dividend Impact:
  • No top gainers/losers today currently exhibit high dividend yields; defensive (high-dividend, low-beta) plays may remain sidelined until breadthis restored.

Contrarian Signals

• MERVALUE ETF: RSI rose from 56.3 to 64.7 with bullish MACD and near overbought zone after +10% jump; but as an ETF, sudden reversals are possible if sentiment shifts. Watch for mean-reversion.
• NAHCO: Closed -9.5% with RSI at 69.6 (nearing "overbought") even as price broke key 15DMA—a classic "blow-off" move.
• ASOSAVINGS: Explosive +9.3% daily move with 92.4 RSI (extreme overbought) and >100x volume. Might be ripe for profit-taking or sharp pullback.
• AIICO: Peaking near 15DMA, but RSI at 47.9 down from 53.7 — short-term uptrend may be losing steam.

Sectoral Heatmap & Technical Table

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

Implication: Defensive (high-dividend/low-beta) names, while technically weak today, may become a magnet if broad market weakness continues. AIICO and CUSTODIAN offer both yield and moderate uptrend.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• GTCO: 19.5% of volume, 29.18% of institutional trade value — continuous block activity signals possible further institutional moves or price leveling.
• ZENITHBANK: Over ₦723M in block trade (20.17% institutional value share); price was off -1.10%. Ongoing accumulation or large rebalancing?
• OANDO: Strong institutional presence and retail follow-through; breakout likely to see further volatility.

Trader Recommendations & Caution

• Bullish 15DMA cross stocks (MERGROWTH, OANDO, AIICO): Momentum may persist, but caution required on ASOSAVINGS given extreme RSI/volume spike (potential for sharp pullback).
• Bearing momentum stocks (CADBURY, NAHCO, LEARNAFRCA): Avoid fresh longs; look for reversal signs or short-term bounces only after RSI cools off.
• Institutional Accumulation: Monitor block-trade heavyweights (GTCO, ZenithBank, OANDO) for hints on sector rotation.
• Defensive Yield Names: Consider AIICO, CUSTODIAN for yield/value, especially if continued breadth weakness.

Market Activity/Trades Summary Insights

• Retail vs Institutional:
  • Retail: 61% of trades; only 36% of volume and 7% of value (small-ticket trades dominate magnitude, larger tickets institutional strength).
  • Institutions: 39% of trades but 63.8% of volume, 93% of trade value — major market moves driven by institutions today.
• Top 5 Institutional Stocks:
  1. GTCO: Value leader (₦8.73B), block trading.
  2. ARADEL
  3. OANDO
  4. ZENITHBANK
  5. NAHCO
  Note: OANDO and GTCO align with highest volatility and unusual volume — institutional momentum is shaping short-term price action.
• Top 5 Retail Stocks:
  1. MTNN (Telecom giant, stable)
  2. FIDELITYBK (banking play, steady retail interest)
  3. GTCO (also strong institutional follow)
  4. ACCESSCORP
  5. ZENITHBANK (both institutional and retail overlap)
  Retail appears to chase momentum and large-caps, with overlap on GTCO/ZenithBank — but institutional flows dictate the actual trend.

Tuesday/Wednesday Special: YTD Top 5 Gainers & Losers

YTD Losers:

Hidden Insights & Actionable Takeaways

• Momentum is highly bifurcated: select ETFs, oil & gas, and insurance drive the upside with technical buy signals, while old-guard industrial, transport, and food names are in multi-factor technical breakdown.
• Institutional flows are dictating the market’s tempo; retail investors should track these block moves for early sector rotation warning.
• Defensive yields have not led the rebound yet, but technically stable names (e.g., AIICO, CUSTODIAN) might be ripe if volatility persists.
• Caution: Many top movers (ASOSAVINGS, OANDO) are now "crowded trades” — discipline on risk management and trailing stops is key.
• Watch for rapid reversals in overbought names and rebounding volume in top losers; contrarian swing may follow if institutional appetite shifts.